Electing the Speaker of the House: A Symptom

Richelieu, the mastermind of the French hegemony of the 17th century, wrote in his Testament, that was supposed to be the guide for the monarch after his death, that a monarch should be wary of negotiating with the republics, he was referring to the republics in Italy, because they take terribly long to decide what to do. That was the 17th century advise, the USA was not even conceptualized in the 17th century; in fact, it was inconceivable that as weak a political organization as a republic would come to rule the world in the next two centuries. Richelieu also foresaw that the internal matters of the republic, not just the foreign policy, were subject to this forlorn process of legislation in the assembly, and his prediction became a headline in the first week of the year 2023.

In 1945 after the end of the Second World War when every country was overburdened with debt and with it the backbone of world politics broken down, only the US stood firm with some economic and political legitimacy that was firm enough to rule itself and the world. Democracy ruled with a pomp for more than half a century, until recently. The events of 6th January 2021 showed that there are cracks within democracy that could create civil disruption to the extent that the prime symbol of democracy, as reverent as the Pnyx of Ancient Greece, was attacked neither by the Taliban nor by the Al-Qaeda, but by the Americans themselves. The foreign insurgents of the 2001 attacks on the White House need not spend money on preparation for an attack on American soil, terrorism has taken a firm root within America itself. Democracy in America swallowed the first pill of suicide in 2021. The second pill of suicide unfolded two years later on the 6th January 2023.

Rarely has the election of the Speaker of the House made a headline, it was considered a formal process that happened just for the sake of happening, all we ever heard were claps and smiles in the Capitol Hill after the routine election of the Speaker. When a normal, mundane event is prolonged and what has happened usually does not happen, it becomes a big event for media companies. Why does this election of the Speaker really matter? It is not about McCarthy or Jeffries, neither is it about Gaetz. It is not alarming that McCarthy is not able to maintain the Republican majority in the House, it is not alarming that only the Republicans are divided, but it is alarming that America is divided. The fiasco unfolding on our TV screens is a distilled version of the civil turmoil in America, the American society is now confronted with the decision whether to hold their local politics together or to let the decline escalate.

There is a widespread literature on American foreign policy that argues for the decline in American hegemony on the world stage, but in all such declinist literature there is present the ideal of American local politics, the ideal that ought to be followed by the Americans not just locally but also in their foreign policy. The dichotomy between local and foreign policy in America was simultaneously a cause of concern and a cause of hope for the Americans and the world alike. It was a cause of concern because of the double blackmail; why were the Americans not simply extrapolating their local political commitments to the international arena? It was a cause of hope because Americans still had within their local politics the correct way of conducting politics. America was strong behind the walls, but when it intervened in other states it became a problem for everyone. Strong democratic institutions allowed for the public to pick up their phones and call their local representative to underscore the problems that they are facing, and the lawmaker worked to ensure that the public voice is heard and the problem resolved. ABC news reported that now the Americans have been facing many problems, as petty as visa-related issues, but there is no one to answer on the line. The decline in American hegemony has seeped into local affairs. Now the dichotomy that kept the hope of American recovery alive is depleting right in front of our eyes. Now not just the American foreign policy, but also its local institutions are in shambles.

Hegemonic decline is not an abrupt event, hegemons do not die in a day, nor in months. Just like ascendency, decline is a process. This does not imply that America will decline in a decade or half a century. Even after America has completed its declining process it would not be realized by the general public. It is like the realization of falling in love, when one falls in love, one only realizes when one has already fallen. The same logic could be applied to the realization about the decline. Great empires in history from China to Greece to Rome to Baghdad all fell; empires are doomed to fall, but only after centuries do we realize that they were glorious, and as history stretches further into the future the more certain the perception of decline becomes.